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Following last month’s record red candle, PlanB stated that long-term price estimates based on stock-to-flow were “intact.”
Bitcoin (BTC) may have recently had its worst monthly candle in ten years, but the cryptocurrency may still reach new all-time highs this year, according to prominent analyst PlanB.
In a tweet on Tuesday, the creator of the stock-to-flow-based BTC price models said that Bitcoin is behaving like during its 2013 bull run.
Stock-to-flow “intact” after May drop
Following its decline to $30,000 and many retests of that level, investors are becoming concerned about a further loss that might take BTC/USD below $20,000 or below.
This would imply that Bitcoin has crossed the all-time high from a prior bull market, in this case from 2017.
PlanB, on the other hand, believes that such an occurrence is implausible. Furthermore, current price movement is not unprecedented — in fact, it might just indicate that the market is revisiting its 2013 — rather than 2017 — performance.
Uploading the most recent version of his stock-to-flow cross-asset (S2FX) model, he drew parallels between 2021 and Bitcoin’s behaviour in the past.
“New dot: May close $37,341.. -35% .. we knew bitcoin would not go up in a straight line and several -35% drops are possible (and indeed likely) in a bull market,” he wrote in accompanying comments.
“Starting to look like 2013. S2F(X) model intact.”
New all-time highs still in play
S2FX categorises Bitcoin as progressing from a fringe phenomena to a full-fledged asset class. Its optimistic projections predict for an average BTC price of $288,000 over the current halving cycle, which runs from 2020 to 2024.
The withdrawal raised concerns about the model’s long-term viability, which PlanB has always cautioned is not assured.
Nonetheless, with the market continuing to meet its needs, the 2013 narrative remains a viable candidate for understanding Bitcoin’s rollercoaster trip this year.
As previously noted, long-term investors’ accumulation practises may culminate in a “double top” situation in 2021, similar to 2013.
According to renowned trader Peter Brandt, who is advocating for such a scenario this week, a rush to new all-time highs may happen only after another severe retreat. This, in turn, would be consistent with historical precedent.