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According to Kraken chief Dan Held, a decade to hyperbitcoinization is “most likely,” a prediction shared by Unchained Capital’s Parker Lewis.
Bitcoin (BTC) may be just ten years away from widespread acceptance, a phenomenon known as “hyperbitcoinization.”
That’s according to attendees at the Bitcoin 2021 conference in Miami, who provided unusually upbeat predictions on when hyperbitcoinization will occur on June 4.
Bitcoin could be unit of account by 2031
Speaking on a panel, The Bitcoin Standard author Saifedean Ammous, Unchained Capital head of business development Parker Lewis and Kraken growth lead Dan Held all gave their deadlines for when Bitcoin will effectively take over global finance.
“I’d say a decade,” Lewis began.
“I think that based on how Bitcoin has been adopted historically and based on the trillions of dollars that the Fed is going to have to print in the coming months to years, that it would potentially be conservative to say that Bitcoin’s a unit of account in 10 years.”
That would involve the Bitcoin network onboarding billions of new users by 2031, but as the panel noted, the rate of adoption since 2011 has already produced hundreds of millions of Bitcoiners.
“I’m going to be a little more conservative than Parker and say maybe 15 years to 16 years — you know, four more halving cycles,” Ammous added.
His viewpoint is similar to that of PlanB, the developer of the stock-to-flow Bitcoin pricing models, who previously calculated that after numerous halving cycles, measuring Bitcoin’s price in dollars will become impossible. This is because, as a currency with no bottom, Bitcoin’s capacity to expand in US dollar terms is endless.
Hyperbitcoinization by 2026 is “unlikely” but possible
“I would say at least a decade for hyperbitcoinization would be the most likely and actually conservative estimate,” Held concluded.
“If we do have an event where there’s rapid devaluation of fiat currency, Bitcoin starts to surge or gets close to $1 million per Bitcoin — a supercycle-esque moment — then we could see it much sooner, maybe five to six years or so. But that would be a very unlikely outcome. I think it could happen, but it’s not likely to happen.”
According to reports, the stock-to-flow model estimates an average BTC/USD price of $100,000 or $288,000 throughout this halving cycle, depending on which model is chosen.
So far, PlanB has been unmoved by the recent crash, which has stripped more than half of Bitcoin’s value from its recent all-time highs of $64,500.