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August 2021 has passed, and Bitcoin has entered the third month of Q3. Following a 40.39 percent drop in Q2, the value of cryptocurrency has risen by roughly 35.39 percent this quarter. The asset is currently in the final month of the fiscal year. In addition, potential bullish pressure would be required to overcome the odds that have been in place for the last four years.
Month of September or Bear’s early Autumn?
Only three times since 2013, has Bitcoin had a positive surge in September. While the odds are 5:3 and appear to be neutral, the results on those green months have been somewhat positive. In comparison, bearish corrections have been significant, with a 19% decline in 2014 and a 13.51 percent decrease in 2019. Even in years when the market was mainly positive, declines of -8.25 percent and -7.53 percent were witnessed in 2017 and 2020, respectively.
Identifying a rational underpinning to such a pattern is impossible because the narratives surrounding BTC have changed over time. Market conditions in 2019 were vastly different from those in 2020, as supply began to decline after May 2020.
Hence, if market superstitions are a thing, September would be a taboo month for bullish investors. However, the narrative in 2021 cannot be based on only historical context.
So, are we expecting a positive September for Bitcoin?
There have been few bearish indications discovered on the chain. Transactional operations have not committed to the same level of commitment as the cryptocurrency’s price has incorporated aggressive bullish rebounds.
As indicated by Glassnode, Bitcoin’s number of entity-adjusted transactions dropped by ~38% since peaking in the first quarter of 2021. Along with transactional activities, total transfer volume fell by 62.5 percent.
Because all of these transfers occur on-chain, both of the aforementioned metrics are responsible for estimating the magnitude of economically significant volume.
With so low demand for block capacity, the current surge lacks the same qualifications witnessed in early-2021.
Bears v. Bulls – The 2021 September battle?
Bears currently have both historical probability and immediate on-chain support for a correction. Given how Bitcoin has performed in recent months, a time of correction is actually rather welcome, since it may allow BTC to re-test before another significant climb in Q4 2021.
However, when it comes to Bitcoin, nothing is certain. Only time will tell how the asset performs in September 2021.