Filbfilb predicts that $60,000 will quickly become $20,000, but a possible sell-off around the Coinbase IPO means that bulls could face problems in April.
Bitcoin (BTC) is set for a market breakout after outperforming uncertainty, but April may still see a surprise sell-off.
Filbfilb, co-founder of trading suite DecenTrader, reported in his most recent market update on Friday that he now expects upside to take over on BTC/USD.
BTC “threatening a breakout”
Bitcoin has recovered from its flash crash earlier in the week and briefly hit $60,000 overnight on Friday.
With seven-day gains still at 13%, there are plenty of reasons to be bullish in the short term now that consolidation looks set to conclude, Filbfilb argues.
“With the weekend looming amidst a buoyant week; it’s difficult not to be optimistic,” he summarized.
“I’m not thinking we will break out with as much ferocity, but I do think that we are on the brink of a strong breakout.”
It’s worth remembering what happened to Bitcoin when it first burst through the $20,000 barrier. A trend of abrupt breakouts after a long time of restructuring and regression could characterise $60,000 as well.
“A few weeks ago I shared this similar price action/market structure as what was seen around the $20k level, which had a correction back to c.50k before a violent breakout,” Filbfilb continued.
“Since then price has almost perfectly played ball with this idea and is now threatening a breakout.”
Bulls to reckon with Coinbase IPO, options expiry
Nonetheless, this breakout will meet problems in the coming weeks. Coinbase, which is completely prepared for its IPO on April 14, will unwittingly cause market pressure to fall.
As was the case this week with London-based Deliveroo, the debut of an IPO often results in selling at first, with the implications for Bitcoin being clear.
“We may see increased volatility around this time period of the 14th April and should pay particular attention to the time from here to options expiry at the end of the month,” Filbfilb concluded.
The end-of-month options expiry can also briefly spook spot price, as seen at the end of March when expiring options hit a record $6 billion. In the end, though, the occurrence had little effect on BTC’s results.
“Lots more bull market to come,” statistician Willy Woo forecast.
Woo listed an on-chain analytics provider. Glassnode’s active BTC supply info, which also indicates that Bitcoin will grow higher before old hodlers sell for a profit, culminating in a cycle peak.
Regardless of the market effect of Coinbase’s IPO this month, the analyst does not see Bitcoin slipping below $46,400 anytime soon. He stated:
“$46.4k is the price I’m modeling that we won’t visit again during in this bull market (daily close).”
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