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“History repeats itself, first as tragedy, then as farce,” they say. Bitcoin has survived multiple death crossings in the past, but how will this time’s prospective cross turn out? Would it be as bad as it has always been, or would the market see an unexpected, out-of-the-blue move?
Historically, Bitcoin’s death crosses have occurred immediately after significant price declines. Indeed, Bitcoin’s price has been on a downward trend for about a month and, as predicted, is on the approach of a probable death cross.
Commenting on similar lines in his recent analysis video, Amsterdam-based technical analyst Michaël van de Poppe asserted,
“The death cross is going to happen. Can’t avoid that anymore.”
When Bitcoin peaked in 2013, it took 135 days for the death cross to occur, and the price decreased by 73% during that time. The death cross reinforces a negative trend and foreshadows more decline.
The death cross took 107 days to occur in 2017. BTC’s price fell 70% from its $20,000 top, and when the cross really occurred, the coin sank another 65%.
Concurrently, when Bitcoin peaked in June 2019, it took 149 days for BTC to face a death cross, and before the cross happened, the coin’s price sank by 53%, with a further 55% correction to the downside.
According to the aforementioned tendency, Bitcoin experiences a death cross between 107 and 149 days following its high. If history repeats itself, this year’s probable death cross might occur between late July and early September (the red area depicted in the above chart). Nonetheless, trader and analyst Rekt Capital just tweeted,
#BTC continues to underperform
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) June 5, 2021
In reality, Bitcoin has already fallen by more than 54% from its peak of $64,000 in April of this year, and if the cross occurs immediately, its price might plummet as low as $18,000. (based on past trends). Poppe then added,
“Bitcoin is currently not in a very bullish structure now. It’s definitely not a sign of strength.”
However, if Bitcoin recovers and continues to rise, the cross may be averted, although this appears to be quite improbable at the moment, according to Poppe. Nonetheless, alluding to a possible scenario of what can happen after the death cross, he stated,
“If Bitcoin stabilises after its death cross just like it did in 2019 and 2013, and crawls back up immediately afterwards, we flip back above and get the golden cross.”
At press time, the coin was trading in the $33,000 range and had registered a 10.07% drop in the past 7 days.