247 Interactions, 8 Today
Bitcoin and a few other major altcoins are still being sold near overhead resistance levels, implying that the next leg of the upswing may have to wait.
An old proverb states that history does not necessarily repeat itself, but it does rhyme. If this remains true for Bitcoin (BTC), a big uptrend may not occur in September.
According to Bybit data, Bitcoin has concluded September in the red for six years in a row and has only managed a positive monthly close on two occasions since 2013. Bitcoin’s best performance came in 2016, when it increased by 6.04 percent.
However, despite September’s poor historical performance, small and major traders continued to accumulate Bitcoin in August. Ecoinometrics observed increasing account balances for addresses holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC as well as accounts holding less than one Bitcoin.
Will September’s terrible track record deter bulls, or will this year be an exception? To discover out, let’s look at the charts of the top ten cryptocurrencies.
The bulls again failed to push the price above the overhead resistance at $50,000 on Aug. 29, suggesting that bears are defending the level aggressively. Bitcoin formed a Doji candlestick pattern on Aug. 29, which has resolved to the downside today.
The failure of the relative strength index (RSI) to climb back into the symmetrical triangle indicates weakness. If bears pull the price below the 200-day simple moving average ($46,065), the BTC/USDT pair could drop to the next support at $42,451.67.
This level is likely to act as a strong support. If the price rebounds off this level, the pair may remain range-bound between $42,451.67 and $50,500 for a few days.
A break and close below $42,451.67 will signal the start of a deeper correction. The pair may then correct to $36,670.
This negative view will invalidate if the price turns up from the current level and breaks above $50,500. Such a move could open the gates for a rally to $60,000.
Ether (ETH) once again turned down from the overhead resistance zone at $3,335 to $3,377.89 on Aug. 29. This suggests that bears are defending the overhead zone aggressively.
However, the bulls have not given up and are defending the 20-day exponential moving average ($3,139), as evidenced by today’s robust rebound. If bulls push the price above the overhead zone, the ETH/USDT pair may restart its upward trend, with targets of $3,670 and ultimately $4,000.
If bears push the market below the 20-day EMA, the ETH/USDT pair might fall below the breakthrough level of $3,000. If the pair bounces off this level, it may remain range-bound between $3,000 and $3,377.89 for a few more days.
A deeper correction may start if bears pull and sustain the price below the breakout level at $3,000. That could result in a decline to the 200-day SMA ($2,389).
Cardano (ADA) turned down from $2.95 on Aug. 28, suggesting that bears are aggressively defending the overhead resistance at $2.97. That was followed by a Doji candlestick pattern on Aug. 29, indicating indecision among the bulls and the bears.
With the emergence of the inside-day candlestick pattern today, the uncertainty has grown. If sellers push the ADA/USDT pair below the Aug. 29 intraday low of $2.71, the pair might fall back to the breakout level of $2.47. A strong comeback from this level might keep the pair trading in a narrow range between $2.47 and $2.97 for a few days.
Although the upsloping 20-day EMA ($2.44) shows a buyer’s advantage, the negative divergence on the RSI indicates that momentum is fading. A break and closure below $2.47 indicates the beginning of a deeper decline. The pair could then fall to $2.20.
The bulls will have to push and sustain the price above the psychological level at $3 to signal the resumption of the uptrend.
The failure of the bulls to push and sustain Binance Coin (BNB) above the May 19 intraday high at $516.50 may have attracted profit-booking from short-term traders. The altcoin has turned down and it may now drop to the breakout level at $433.
The bulls are likely to aggressively defend the support zone between the 20-day EMA ($445) and the breakout level at $433. A strong rebound off this zone will suggest that the sentiment remains positive and bulls are buying on dips.
A breakout and close above $520 will signal the resumption of the uptrend. The BNB/USDT pair may then rally to $600. Conversely, if bears sink the price below $433, the pair could drop to the 200-day SMA ($368).
XRP rebounded off the $1.07 support on Aug. 27 but the bulls could not push the price to the downtrend line. This suggests that demand dries up at higher levels. The bears are currently attempting to sink the price to the critical support at $1.07.
The price action of the past few days has formed a descending triangle pattern, which will complete on a break and close below $1.05. This setup has a target objective at $0.75. The flattening 20-day EMA ($1.10) and the RSI near the midpoint suggest that bulls are losing their grip.
Conversely, if the price rebounds off the $1.05 support and breaks above the downtrend line, it will negate the bearish setup. The failure of a bearish pattern is a bullish sign. The pair may then start its rally to $1.35 followed by a move to $1.66.
Dogecoin (DOGE) rose above the overhead resistance at $0.29 on Aug. 27 but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels. The price dipped back below $0.29 on Aug. 28.
The bears will now try to sink the price below the immediate support at $0.26. If they can pull it off, the DOGE/USDT pair could drop to the critical support at $0.21.
The flat 20-day EMA ($0.28) and the RSI near the midpoint suggest a balance between supply and demand.
This balance will shift in favor of the bulls if they can push and sustain the price above the downtrend line. The pair may then rally to $0.35 and later to $0.45.
Solana (SOL) is in a strong uptrend. The up-move halted on Aug. 29 but the long tail on the day’s candlestick showed that bulls bought on dips. The buyers have again pushed the price to a new all-time high today.
If bulls sustain the price above $100, the SOL/USDT pair could start its journey toward the next target at $122.09. Although the momentum is strong, the RSI above 83 suggests the rally is overheated in the short term.
The first sign of weakness will be a break and close below $90. That will suggest that traders are aggressively booking profits. The pair could then correct to the 20-day EMA ($72), which is likely to act as a strong support. A break and close below this support will signal a possible change in trend.
The uptrend line in Polkadot (DOT) is acting as a resistance. Attempts by the bulls to push the price back above this line failed on Aug. 27 and 28, which suggests that traders are closing their positions on rallies.
If bears push the price below the 20-day moving average ($24.48), the DOT/USDT pair could see more selling. The pair might then fall below the strong support level of $18. Such a move suggests that the pair’s range-bound activity may continue for a few more days.
The 20-day EMA is steadily flattening, and the RSI is barely over the midway, indicating that bulls are losing control. To gain the upper hand, the bulls must push the price over $28.60 and keep it there. This will complete a V-bottom pattern with a $46.83 target objective.
Uniswap (UNI) bounced off the $25 support on Aug. 27 and rose above the moving averages but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels. This suggests that bears have not given up and are selling on rallies.
The price has fallen back below the moving averages today, and sellers will now attempt to push the price below the $25 support level. If this occurs, the UNI/USDT pair will form a modest descending triangle pattern. The aim for this bearish setup is $18.74.
Alternatively, if the price bounces off the $25 support and breaks above the downtrend line, the bearish setup would be invalidated. The price of the pair may then jump to $30. To signify the start of a new uptrend, the bulls must push the price above this resistance and keep it there.
Terra protocol’s LUNA rallied to a new all-time high on Aug. 29 but traders used this rise to book profits. The price turned down today but bounced sharply from $32, indicating that bulls had flipped the previous resistance into support.
Buyers will now attempt to raise the price above the all-time high of $36.89. If they succeed, the LUNA/USDT pair might begin its journey towards the next target aim of $43 and then $50.
In contrast to this premise, if the price falls below $36.89 again, the bears will attempt to drop the pair under the 20-day EMA ($27.23).
A robust rebound from this support level indicates that sentiment is still optimistic and that traders are buying on dips. The bulls will next aim to restart their upward trend. To undermine the bullish momentum, the bears will have to take the price below the 20-day EMA and keep it there.