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The current relief rally in Bitcoin and altcoins could be a sign that the market is reaching a bottoming phase.
The sentiment in the crypto sector is extremely bearish. On May 23, several altcoins dipped below the May 19 panic low, suggesting that traders continue to sell at every opportunity. However, Bitcoin (BTC) did not violate its May 19 panic low at $29,257.95, indicating buying at lower levels.
John Bollinger, the creator of the Bollinger Bands indicator, believes Bitcoin could be forming a W-shaped bottom, which may have a good risk to reward ratio.
In another encouraging indication, PlanB, the maker of the stock-to-flow Bitcoin price model, reported that traders who bought in the $55,000 to $60,000 range in April have sold heavily. In May, these traders dumped approximately 1 million Bitcoin in the $30,000 to $35,000 range.
According to PlanB, the whales have bought aggressively during the current dip, which is a positive sign as “1 million Bitcoin are in strong hands now.”
Morgan Creek Digital’s Anthony Pompliano shared another perspective regarding Bitcoin whale sales, citing data from Glassnode. During the May 19 disaster, Bitcoin whales with 10,000 to 100,000 Bitcoin purchased 122,588 Bitcoin. Several crypto hedge funds polled by Bloomberg said they were sellers at lower prices as well.
What is certain is that whales have been purchasing dips. Is this a sign that a low has been reached, or will crypto values continue to fall? To find out, let’s look at the maps of the top ten cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin fell below the $33,496.82 support level on May 23, but the bears were unable to push the market below the May 19 low of $29,257.95. The long tail on the May 23 candlestick indicates that the bulls vigorously purchased the dips.
Today, traders are attempting to capitalise on the rebound by pushing the market over the downtrend line. If the bulls can keep the price above the downtrend line, the BTC/USDT pair could reach $42,000 before reaching the 20-day exponential moving average ($44,965).
If the price falls below the 20-day EMA, it indicates that sentiment is already pessimistic and traders are selling on rallies. This could keep the pair trading in a narrow range between $28,850 and $45,000 for a few days.
In contrast to this assumption, if the market fails to hold over the downtrend line, it indicates that traders are selling on small rallies. This raises the probability of a retest by $28,850. A split below this stage may lead to a drop to $20,000 or lower.
On May 23, Ether (ETH) fell below the intraday low of May 19 at $1,801.60, but the long tail on the day’s candlestick shows bulls vigorously bought at lower prices. Today’s rebound has been extended by investors, which is a good indicator.
The ETH/USDT pair could rise to the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement level of $2,724.05, which is expected to serve as a strong resistance. The moving averages are approaching a bearish convergence, and the RSI is in negative range, suggesting a bearish advantage.
If the stock falls below $2,724.05, the bears will make one more effort to re-establish the downtrend. A break below $1,703.77 could lead to a further drop to $1,547.46 and then $1,289.
The first sign of momentum would be a near over the 20-day moving average ($2,959). Such a change would imply that the downtrend could be coming to an end.
Binance Coin (BNB) broke below $233.81 on May 23, completing a 100% retracement of the entire leg of the rally that had started on March 26. However, the long tail on the May 23 candlestick suggests the bulls have not given up yet.
Buyers are attempting to launch a relief rally, which may encounter opposition at $348.70 and then again at $428. The moving averages have completed a bearish crossover, and the RSI is nearing oversold territory, indicating a bearish advantage.
If the price falls below the overhead resistance, the bears will try to restart the downtrend. If the sellers break through the $211.70 to $200 support range, the sale could become more intense, and the BNB/USDT pair could fall to $120.
In contrast to this assumption, if the bulls defend the $211.70 support during the next fall, it would imply that the correction has ended and the pair is about to bottom.
Cardano (ADA) fell to the $1 support level again on May 23, and the long tail on the day’s candlestick shows that bulls bought the fall vigorously. As a result, the $1 mark is a critical support to keep an eye on on the downside.
Buyers are reportedly attempting to keep the price above the $1.48 resistance level. If they are successful, the ADA/USDT pair could climb to the 20-day EMA ($1.62), where the bears are expected to mount another strong resistance.
If the price falls below the 20-day EMA, it indicates that momentum is already bearish, and the pair will then consolidate between $1 and $1.63 for a few days.
Alternatively, if the bulls drive the market past the 20-day EMA, the pair could rise to $1.94 before reaching an all-time high of $2.34. A break below the $1 to $0.95 support range, on the other hand, could result in panic selling.
Dogecoin (DOGE) fell below the 50-day simple moving average ($0.33) on May 23 after remaining above it from May 20 to 22. Bulls, on the other hand, bought the dip and are now attempting to lift the market up above the 50-day SMA.
The relief recovery is likely to encounter opposition at the downtrend line and then at the 20-day EMA ($0.40). If the price falls through either resistance, the bears will make another attempt to bust through the $0.21 support.
If this occurs, the DOGE/USDT pair could fall to $0.15 and then to $0.10. The downsloping 20-day EMA and RSI below 44 indicate that the bears have the upper hand.
If the bulls drive the price beyond the 20-day EMA, this bearish opinion will be rendered null and void. In such a case, the pair could rise to $0.47 and then to $0.59.
On May 23, XRP fell and closed below the $0.88 support level, indicating that the bears are in charge. The bulls, on the other hand, have not given up and are attempting to bring the market back beyond $0.88 today. If they succeed, the altcoin could begin a relief rally that could take it to the 20-day moving average ($1.22).
The bears are expected to protect the 20-day moving average. If the price falls below this resistance level, the XRP/USDT pair could fall to $0.88 and then to $0.65. A fall below this level could result in a drop to $0.56.
On the other hand, if the bulls drive the price over the moving averages, the pair could rally all the way to the downtrend line. A split and close over the downtrend line indicates that the downtrend could be coming to an end.
After a brief fight near the $26.50 mark on May 20 and 21, the bears took over on May 22 and dragged Polkadot (DOT) lower. On May 23, the altcoin fell to $13.63, but the bulls pounced, creating a long tail on the candlestick.
Today, the bulls are attempting to capitalise on their recent rebound, which could exceed the breakdown stage of $26.50. If the market breaks through this resistance but remains above $15, a few days of range-bound activity is likely.
The first sign of strength will be a breakout and close over $26.50, and momentum will benefit the bulls if they can lift the market above the 20-day EMA ($31.93).
If the bears push the price below the $15 to $13.63 support range, the DOT/USDT pair could fall as low as $7.98.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has seen a cascade plunge in recent days, falling from a high of $1,638.08 on May 12 to a low of $467.58 on May 23, a 71 percent drop in a brief period of time. In general, a quick pullback may be predicted after such a steep drop.
If the bulls would lift the market beyond $686.75 and keep it there, the relief rally could stretch to the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement stage of $914.71. This amount would most likely serve as a strong barrier, but if the bulls can drive the price above it, the BCH/USDT pair could reach $1,100.
In contrast to this expectation, if the price falls from $914, the pair may oscillate for a few days between $467.58 and $914. A collapse and close to $442.96 will be a major negative, potentially resulting in a decline to $370.
On May 23, Uniswap (UNI) fell below the $17.50 to $16 support level, reaching a low of $13. The long tail on the candlestick, on the other hand, shows that the bulls bought the dip.
Today, the UNI/USDT pair began a relief rally that could take it to the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement stage of $25.22. The bears have the upper hand, as seen by the downsloping moving averages and the RSI nearing oversold territory.
If the price falls to $25.22, the bears will make one more effort to re-establish the downtrend. A fall below $13 could lead to a drop to the next support level at $10.
A split over $25.22, on the other hand, might drive the price to the 20-day EMA ($30.25). This amount is likely to serve as hard resistance once more, but if the bulls can lift the market above it, the pair could reach $36.
On May 23, Litecoin (LTC) recovered from the $118 support range, indicating that it is still a good time to purchase. Today, the bulls are attempting to prolong their rehab. If they would raise the price above $187.75, the altcoin will surpass the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement mark of $230.75.
The bears are in charge, as shown by the downsloping 20-day EMA ($246) and the RSI nearing oversold territory. If the market falls beyond this resistance, the bears will try to push the price below $118.
If they are successful, the LTC/USDT pair could fall to $95 and then to $80. If the bulls bring the price over the moving averages, this bearish perspective will be rendered invalid. Such a move could result in a rally to the 61.8 percent retracement level at $300.25.