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Altcoins continue to rise while Bitcoin trades in a predictable range, but it is still too early to tell if the market is sending out strong buy signals.
Bitcoin (BTC) led the weekend surge in cryptocurrencies, although this move was not underpinned by large trade volumes. According to CryptoQuant on-chain experts, the low trade volume indicates that “whales are staying low without much action.”
However, Bitcoin has successfully held the $30,000 support level for two weeks, indicating that accumulation is occuring at lower levels.The Crypto Fear and Greed Index rose to 29 on July 5, its highest level in about three weeks. This suggests that aggressive investors may have started bottom fishing.
If bulls can keep Bitcoin over $30,000 for a few more days, trading interest is expected to rise even more. Typically, institutional investors do not buy in a sinking market and instead wait for prices to stabilise. When that happens, the volume is likely to increase, and a stronger recovery is possible.
However, if support levels deteriorate further, sentiment will deteriorate more, and institutions may opt to remain on the sidelines until a bottom is confirmed. Let’s look at the charts of the top ten cryptocurrencies to identify crucial support levels on the downside.
The bulls pushed Bitcoin above the 20-day exponential moving average ($34,851) on July 4 but they could not clear the hurdle at the 50-day simple moving average ($36,338). This suggests that bears continue to sell on rallies.
If the price remains below the 20-day EMA, the bears will attempt to drag the BTC/USDT pair down to the $31,000 support level. The flat 20-day EMA and the relative strength index (RSI) slightly below the midpoint indicate that supply and demand are in equilibrium.
If the price falls below $31,000, the balance will change in favour of the bears. As a result, the support level may fall to $28,000. If this level is breached, the pair may experience panic selling.
If the price increases from its present level or recovers from $31,000, the bulls will make one more effort to break over the overhead obstacle at $36,670.
Ether (ETH) is stuck between the moving averages. This shows that bears are attempting to defend the 50-day SMA ($2,410) and the bulls are trying to sustain the price above the 20-day EMA ($2,196).
This tight-range trading, however, is unlikely to last. The ETH/USDT pair might rise to the downtrend line if bulls take the price above the 50-day SMA. This level may function as a resistance once again, but if it is breached, the next halt may be $2,990.05.
If bears push the price below the 20-day EMA, the pair may fall below $2,000. This is a critical support since a break below it invalidates the short-term bullish perspective. The pair may then fall below the key support level of $1,728.74.
The flat 20-day EMA and the RSI at the middle do not provide either the bulls or the bears a distinct edge.
Binance Coin (BNB) is facing stiff resistance at the 20-day EMA ($308) but the positive sign is that the bulls are not giving up much ground. This suggests that buyers anticipate the altcoin to make an upward dash.
The BNB/USDT pair might reach the 50-day SMA ($341) if bulls push the price over the 20-day EMA. The bears may attempt to halt the comeback at this level, but if the bulls can absorb the supply, the pair may begin its trek to $433.
In contrast to this notion, short-term traders may close their bets if the bulls fail to drive the price above the 20-day EMA. If the pair falls below $264.26, a retest of the support at $211.70 is possible.
Cardano (ADA) broke above the 20-day EMA ($1.39) on July 3 but the bulls could not drive the price above the 50-day SMA ($1.51). This suggests that bears are in no mood to relent and they continue to sell on rallies.
If the bears drive the price below the 20-day moving average, traders who purchased during the recent relief bounce may exit their holdings. This may reduce the price to $1.20. If the price bounces off this level, the bulls will make another effort to break through the barrier at the 50-day SMA.
If they are successful, the ADA/USDT pair may begin its trek towards $1.94. If bears drive the price below $1.20, the pair may revisit the key support level of $1. A break below this level will be extremely bearish and may signal the start of a new downturn.
Dogecoin (DOGE) had been trading near the 20-day EMA ($0.26) for the past few days but the bulls could not push the price above it. This suggests that bears aggressively defended this resistance.
Today, the bulls appear to have given up and are closing their position. If the bears push the price below $0.21, the selling may get more intense, and the DOGE/USDT pair could revisit the key support level of $0.15.
The bears have an edge since the moving averages are progressively descending and the RSI is below 41. Selling might gain traction below $0.15, resulting in a decline below $0.10.
This bearish perspective will be rendered obsolete if the price recovers from $0.21 and breaks above the 20-day EMA.
In a downtrend, the bears aggressively defend the 20-day EMA ($0.70) and that is what has happened in XRP. Even after repeated attempts in the past few days, the bulls could not propel the price above the 20-day EMA.
The downsloping moving averages and the RSI below 42 suggest that bears are in command. If bears sink the price below $0.63, XRP/USDT pair could drop to $0.58 and then to the critical support at $0.50.
This bearish view will be negated if the price rebounds off the support and rises above the 20-day EMA. Such a move will clear the path for a rally to the 50-day SMA where the bears may again pose a stiff challenge.
Polkadot (DOT) has been trading in a tight range between $13 and $16.93 for the past few days. A tight consolidation near the support is a negative sign as it shows that the bulls are not able to overcome the supply and push the price higher.
Both moving averages are trending downward, and the RSI has dropped from 41, indicating that bears are in charge. If sellers push the price below $13, the DOT/USDT pair might see heavy selling, bringing the price down to $10 and ultimately $7.50.
On the other hand, if the bulls can reclaim the $13 support, the pair may be able to continue inside the tight range for a few more days. The first sign that demand outweighs supply will be a breakout and closing above $16.93.
Uniswap (UNI) broke above the 20-day EMA ($19.53) on July 4 but the bulls are struggling to sustain the price above it. This suggests that bears are trying to trap the aggressive bulls.
However, the flattening 20-day EMA and the RSI slightly below the midpoint signal that selling pressure is easing. If the bulls do not let the price to remain below the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that sentiment has shifted positive and buyers are accumulating on dips.
This increases the likelihood of a break above the 50-day simple moving average ($22.65). If this occurs, the UNI/USDT pair may begin its ascent to $25 and eventually $27. In contrast to this premise, if the price falls below $16.93, the pair may fall below $15.
Even after repeated attempts in the past few days, the bulls have not been able to push Bitcoin Cash (BCH) above the overhead resistance at $538.11. This suggests that bears are unwilling to let go of their advantage.
The 20-day EMA ($526) has begun to decline, and the RSI has fallen below 43, indicating that the path of least resistance is to the downside.
The sellers will now attempt to drive the price below the immediate support level of $475.69. If they are successful, the BCH/USDT pair may fall to $428.43, then to $370.
This bearish perspective will be reversed if the price increases from its present level or rebounds from the support level and rises above $538.11. If this occurs, the pair may extend its recovery rally to $650.35 and ultimately to $735.53.
The bulls could not push Litecoin (LTC) above the 20-day EMA ($144) on July 4, which suggests that bears are aggressively defending this resistance.
Today’s price has declined from the 20-day EMA. If the price falls below $130.60, the LTC/USDT pair may revisit the crucial support level of $118. If this level also falls, the pair will have completed a falling triangle pattern, allowing for a down move to $100 and then $70.
This negative perspective will be invalidated if the price rises from its present level or rebounds from the support and breaks above the triangle’s downtrend line. Such a step may pave the way for an increase to $200.