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According to Glassnode statistics, Bitcoin’s (BTC) active supply – coins that have moved in the last two years or less — fell to a five-month low of 44.5 percent on June 2. This suggests that investors who bought Bitcoin more than two years ago are hesitant to sell despite the 40% decrease.
Even miners who sold during the May slump have changed their minds. Outflows from miner addresses are at their lowest in seven months, indicating that miners are holding on to their Bitcoin.
Peter Brandt, a veteran trader, believes Bitcoin’s slump might stretch below $30,000. According to Brandt, every 50% drop in Bitcoin’s history has extended to 70%. He also stated that, based on historical data, Bitcoin is unlikely to reach a new all-time high within seven months following a 50% fall.
PlanB, the author of the stock-to-flow-based Bitcoin price models, feels a further drop below $30,000 is improbable. He is also optimistic about Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high this year.
At the moment, analysts are divided in their opinion on Bitcoin’s short-term price action. Let’s analyze the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to determine the path of least resistance.
Bitcoin continues to trade inside a symmetrical triangle pattern as the bulls and the bears battle it out to establish their supremacy. Although the symmetrical triangle generally acts as a continuation pattern, it is difficult to predict with certainty until the price breaks out of the triangle.
The bears have the upper hand, as seen by the downsloping moving averages and the relative strength index in negative territory. If the BTC/USDT pair breaks below the triangle, the negative trend may accelerate. There is a modest support level at $28,000, but if it also fails, the pair may revisit the $20,000 level.
If the bulls push and hold the price above the triangle’s resistance line, this pessimistic perspective will be invalidated. If this occurs, it indicates that the bulls have beaten the bears. After that, the pair might try to rise to the 50-day simple moving average ($49,201).
This level may again act as a stiff resistance but if the bulls propel the price above it, the pair will signal that the downtrend could be over.
Ether (ETH) turned down from the 20-day exponential moving average ($2,762) on June 1 but the positive sign is that the bulls did not give up much ground. This suggests that the buyers did not hurry to close their positions.
The 20-day EMA is flattening out, and the RSI has climbed towards the middle, indicating that selling pressure has diminished.
If buyers push the price above the symmetrical triangle’s resistance line, the ETH/USDT pair may begin a relief rally that may reach the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement level at $3,362.72 and subsequently the 78.6 percent retracement level at $3,806.91.
In contrast to this notion, if the bulls are unable to keep the price above the triangle, the pair may continue to consolidate within the triangle for a few more days. A collapse and closing below the triangle will give the bears an edge.
Binance Coin (BNB) has risen above the 20-day EMA ($399) but it could face stiff resistance at $423.83. If the price turns down from this overhead resistance, the bulls will try to arrest the decline at the trendline.
If they succeed, it will suggest the bulls are attempting to form a higher low. This will increase the possibility of a break above $423.83. The BNB/USDT pair could then rally to the 50-day SMA ($505). A breakout of this resistance will suggest the downtrend may be over.
On the contrary, if the price turns down from the current level and plummets below the trendline, it will suggest the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies. The pair could then retest the critical support at $211.70.
Cardano (ADA) broke above the downtrend line on June 1 and the bulls are trying to extend the relief rally above $2 today. The 20-day EMA ($1.64) has started to turn up and the RSI is trading above 54, suggesting that the bulls have the upper hand.
If buyers succeed in pushing the price above $2, the ADA/USDT pair could rally to the all-time high at $2.47.
On the other hand, if the price turns down from $2, the bears will try to pull the price back below the downtrend line. If that happens, it will suggest that buying dries up at higher levels. The pair could then drop to the 50-day SMA ($1.52).
A breakdown and close below the 50-day SMA could attract further selling and the pair may drop to $1.33 and later to $1.
Dogecoin (DOGE) broke above the downtrend line on May 31 and cleared the 20-day EMA ($0.37) hurdle today. The RSI has jumped into the positive territory and the 20-day EMA has started to turn up, suggesting the bulls are making a comeback.
If buyers propel the price above $0.47, the DOGE/USDT pair could pick up further momentum and rise to $0.59.
Conversely, if the price turns down from $0.47, the pair could correct to the 20-day EMA. If this support holds, it will suggest the sentiment has turned positive and traders are buying on dips. The bulls will then make one more attempt to push the price above $0.47.
However, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, the pair could drop to $0.28 and then to $0.21.
The bulls tried to push XRP above the 20-day EMA ($1.07) on June 1 but met with stiff resistance from the bears. However, the buyers did not give up much ground, indicating strength.
The bulls will again try to thrust and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do that, the XRP/USDT pair could start its relief rally to the 50-day SMA ($1.30) and then to the downtrend line.
Alternatively, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, the pair could again drop to the $0.88 to $0.80 support zone. A break below this zone could result in a retest of the May 23 low at $0.65.
Polkadot (DOT) is inching towards the overhead resistance at $26.50. The price had turned down from this resistance on May 28, hence the bears are again likely to defend this level aggressively.
If the DOT/USDT pair turns down from $26.50 but bounces off the trendline, it will suggest that bulls are accumulating on dips.
That could result in the formation of a bullish ascending triangle pattern, which will complete on a breakout and close above $26.50. The pattern target of this setup is $35.91.
Alternatively, if the bears sink the price below the trendline, the pair could drop to the support at $15. A strong rebound off this support will suggest a few days of range-bound action between $15 and $26.50.
Uniswap (UNI) turned down from the 20-day EMA ($28.41) on June 1 but the positive sign is that the bulls did not allow the price to drift down. The buyers are again trying to push the price above the 20-day EMA today.
Retesting a resistance level repeatedly tends to degrade it. The 20-day EMA is flattening out, and the RSI has gone over 48, indicating that the selling pressure has subsided.
The UNI/USDT pair might reach the 50-day SMA ($33.67) if buyers push the price over the 20-day EMA and $30. A break of this resistance level might herald the conclusion of the decline.
If the price breaks below the 20-day EMA and falls below $25.94, the bears will try to push the pair down to $21.50. A breakdown and closing below this support level would indicate that the bears have reasserted their dominance.
Internet Computer (ICP) remains weak as the bulls have not been able to push the price back above $120 in the past five days. This suggests a lack of aggressive buying even at the current levels.
If the bears continue to push the price below the $103.71 support level, the ICP/USDT pair may resume its decline and attempt the May 19 low of $86. If this support breaks, the pair might fall below $60.
On the other hand, if bulls drive and keep the price over $120, it will signal a time to accumulate at lower levels. This might pave the way for a jump to $168.
If the price breaks through this barrier, we should expect a few days of range-bound trading. On a breakthrough, the pair might gain positive momentum and close over $168.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) rose above $685.36 on May 31. The bears tried to pull the price back below the level on June 1 but they could not sustain the lower levels. This suggests buyers are trying to form a higher low.
The relief rally is anticipated to be met with firm resistance around the 20-day moving average ($801). If the price falls through this barrier, the bears will make another effort to push the BCH/USDT pair below the $685 to $600 support zone. If they are successful, the pair may revisit the May 23 low of $468.13.
If bulls push the price over the 20-day EMA, momentum will build up and the pair will likely advance to the 50-day SMA ($958). This level may operate as a tough barrier once more, but if the bulls can push the price over it, the rally might extend to the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement level at $1,198.53.