Bulls want to recoup $40K before Friday’s $520M BTC option expiry.

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If Bitcoin trades above $40,000 on June 19, bulls will remove 99 percent of the bear’s protective puts.

Bitcoin (BTC) bulls have little reason to rejoice after a 25% gain in the last nine days. Top traders’ confidence waned after hitting the $31,000 support on June 8, and even the recent $41,000 high was unable to lift their hopes.

In contrast to market expectations, the Financial Conduct Authority of the United Kingdom has reported a large growth in bitcoin ownership in the nation. According to a consumer study, 2.3 million individuals in the United Kingdom currently own crypto assets, up from 1.9 million last year.

Another debunked idea is the notion that whales have been selling, forcing the Bitcoin price to hover below $47,000 for 31 days. In contrast to this story, Santiment data reveals that addresses with 100 to 10,000 BTC raised their assets by $367 billion throughout that time period.

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Regardless of investors’ long-term bullishness, $520 million in BTC options are due to expire on June 18 at 8:00 a.m. UTC. While the initial screening indicates that the neutral-to-bullish call options have a 20% advantage, a more detailed look paints a different picture.


Bitcoin June 18 aggregate options expiry by strike. Source: Bybt

The neutral-to-bullish call (buy) option offers purchasers with upward price protection, whereas the protective put (sell) option does the reverse. Traders can obtain insight into how bullish or bearish traders are positioned by evaluating the risk exposure at each price level.

The total number of contracts due to expire on June 18 is 13,400, which equates to $520 million at Bitcoin’s current price of $39,000. Bulls lead with 1,240 contracts, worth $48 million, but the price of Bitcoin on Friday morning will determine the outcome.


Bulls have a $60 million lead above $38,000

While the first image appears to be optimistic, keep in mind that the $44,000 call (buy) options are nearly worthless with less than sixteen hours to expiry. When those bullish futures are ignored, a more balanced picture arises.

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Less than 2,200 call options have been put at $38,000 or less, for a total open interest of $84 million. Another 1,000 neutral-to-bullish options become live at $40,000, bringing the total open interest to $128 million.

The protective put options at $38,000 and above, on the other hand, total 750 contracts and are worth $28 million. This provides the bulls a comfortable $60 million advantage and an incentive to push the price beyond $40,000, bringing the difference to $120 million. In this situation, 99 percent of the protective put options will lose their value.

Bears need to wait for until last minute to salvage their position

Options contracts at Deribit, OKEx, and Bit.com occur at 8:00 a.m., thus there is no use in attempting to influence the price before that occurrence. Bears, on the other hand, may have given up, focusing their energies on the monthly expiry on June 25. Bulls, on the other hand, have compelling reasons to increase their gains on June 17.

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