231 Interactions, 2 Today
Marty Bent, co-founder of Bitcoin mining firm Great American Mining, is relieved to be holding Bitcoin as the legacy financial system faces uncertainty.
As the prospect of Chinese property giant Evergrande defaulting on $305 billion in debt looms, experts weigh in on how the firm’s bankruptcy might affect the legacy and crypto markets.
The speculation about whether the REIT will default has coincided with a drop in the crypto and stock markets, leaving many analysts divided on whether traders should buy the dip or take profits in anticipation of further bearish momentum.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) is down approximately 13% since the downturn began on Saturday, while the S&P 500 is down 1.7 percent and the Hang Seng is down 2.8 percent in the same time frame.
Some argue that Evergande’s potential default could be another Lehman Brothers moment, referring to the major investment bank’s declaration of bankruptcy on $600 billion in debt that triggered the global financial crisis.
However, speaking at the Greenwich Economic Forum on Wednesday, Bridgewater Associates co-chairman and co-chief investment office Ray Dalio downplayed the significance of an Evergrande default and suggested that the debt is “manageable.”
Dalio admits that while investors will be stung, he thinks that Evergrande’s debt won’t cause structural damage, as the Chinese government may swoop in to restructure the firm and strike deals with the company. He said:
“[The] Lehman moment produced pervasive structural damage through the system that wasn’t rectified until the Treasury came across in terms of its borrowing and then the Fed came across with quantitative easing, but this is not that kind of a shake-up.
Ming Tan, a director at the credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P) predicts the Chinese state will intervene to restructure Evergrande.
Speaking to Financial Times on Monday, Tan speculated that restructuring is likely to see the “profitable parts of [Evergrande’s] business bought up by rivals,” with its debt obligations likely to be underwritten by either a consortium of commercial Chinese banks or the local central bank directly.
Influencer Lark Davis also isnt too concerned:
Most analysts seem to believe that Ever Grande will not lead to a global contagion event like Lehman did…. can we get back to the bull run now please? #bitcoin
— Lark Davis (@TheCryptoLark) September 22, 2021
Not everyone is so optimistic. The host of CNBC’s Mad Money show, Jim Cramer asserted Evergrande’s debt issues will likely impact the crypto market because nearly half of the reserves backing the leading stablecoin Tether (USDT) are held in commercial paper.
Cramer urged for investor caution while Evergrande awaits a verdict on a potential government bailout, stating:
“I know the crypto lovers never want to hear me say ‘sell,’ but if you’ve got a big gain as I did, well, I’m begging you to. Don’t let it become a loss; sell some. Stay long the rest, then let’s wait and see if China changes its attitude toward an Evergrande bailout.”
While Tether has denied holding any commercial paper issued by Evergrande, analysts have warned that the fallout from an Evergrande restructuring could have significant impacts on the broader commercial paper markets.
“Tons of Chinese businesses stand to get crushed by this fiasco, and they have Evergrande exposure, and that could spell real trouble,” said Cramer.
Marty Bent, a podcaster and a co-founder of Great American Mining, also sounded alarm bells in his Monday newsletter.
Bent suggested that an Evergrande default will unveil how “exposed the Western world is to China’s economy” via investments in the large real estate players, their debt instruments, and the debt issued by the Chinese Community Party (CCP).
“Evergrande is going under and it is dragging other large real estate developers in China down with it. The world is witnessing another Lehman moment,” he said.
Bent questioned the assertion that Evergrande will be bailed out by the government, pointing to the party’s recent push to rein in Chinese capitalism and tighten real estate regulations.
“The CCP has stated that they do not intend to bail out the real estate developers who are currently on the verge of bankruptcy. “It will be interesting to see if they maintain this posture as things worsen,” he says.
The podcaster also stated that, while he is unsure how the fallout from Evergrande will affect Bitcoin in the short to medium term, he is “grateful” that he can hold Bitcoin as a hedge against the global financial system based on fiat currency.
Ok who is buying the dip?✋
— Dan Held (@danheld) September 21, 2021
The share price of Evergrande has been steadily declining in 2021 as its credit woes have mounted. After opening the year at roughly $14, the price sits now at $2.20 — a loss of more than 84%.