Filecoin will rise to the occasion by attempting a breakout.

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The altcoin market has relived some of the buying pressure that accumulated during the first week of October. Most altcoins have entered a lull as the market leader Bitcoin has eased around the $55K mark. To put this in context, Solana was the top gainer among the top ten cryptos, with a 2.6 percent increase in the last 24 hours.

However, another story appeared to be brewing further down the crypto ladder. Shiba Inu, Filecoin, and CELR, for example, defied the broader market trend and continued to see capital inflows. Filecoin, in particular, saw a 10% increase from yesterday’s close. On the charts, an up-channel was in charge of the price movement.

A breakout from here would take FIL to the $90 level, from which the swing high of $120.3 on September 6th would be targeted. Bears, on the other hand, will be hot on their tails.

Filecoin 4-hour Chart

Filecoin, like the rest of the market, lost a significant portion of its value in September due to a series of mini flash crashes. In less than a month, the alt fell from a high of $120.3 to a low of $51, a drop of nearly 60%. FIL has been on a slow but steady recovery path since then.

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Over the last two weeks, the candles have oscillated within an up-channel, with a false breakout on October 1st. Bulls have now cleared the first few obstacles at $66 and $76. With the 4-hour 200-SMA (green) now bullish as well, an upward breakout was unavoidable. An immediate close above the swing high of $82.5 set on August 23rd could confirm a breakout and lead to another 9 percent -12 percent increase.

To negate this outcome, bears would need to target a close below the confluence of the 4-hour 200-SMA and $76 support. This would set FIL for a new higher low at the lower trendline.

Reasoning

The 4-hour MACD and Awesome Oscillator both traded comfortably above their respective half-lines, indicating that more buying pressure was expected in the market. The overbought readings on the Relative Strength Index, on the other hand, suggest a near-term reversal. In addition, the index formed a slight bearish divergence from FIL’s price action.

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Conclusion

FIL had a small window of opportunity to force an immediate breakout above its ascending channel. Another 9% to 12% increase is possible if buying pressure is maintained in the coming sessions. Near-term obstacles were primarily caused by an overbought reading and a bearish divergence along the RSI. If sellers take over, a higher low is expected.

 

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