332 Interactions, 2 today
Bitcoin’s short-term supply holder has traditionally risen in the previous bull markets and has served as a significant momentum enhancer. This trend has been replicated in the latest business cycle, and we could not have reached the top yet. Throughout the business cycle, several times Crypto Twitter influencers have taken reference from the Plan B S2F or S2Fx concept. However, the latest market movement is not in position to reach $100,000 by the end of April 2021, at least not on the basis of the price map.
The price chart and on-chain monitoring have been neutral for much of the last two weeks. Despite some dips, the price stabilised, but the rebound was largely in line with the previous instances of the present trading cycle. Data from OKEx’s futures trading reveals that institutional buyers remain conservative after the last dip and are not heavily leveraged despite BTC’s ATH checking.
What’s more, based on Stephan Livera’s new podcast, out of the 18.6 million bitcoin mined, 80 percent were owned by illiquid HOLDLers/entities leaving just 4.2 million in circulation. The number is only shrinking on the basis of OKEx results. When the commodity is only selling at a price of over $59k, it is not at its highest. To drive the price up to the height of the current price surge active supply is declining and HODLers who keep for a long time before selling have acquired more Bitcoin in the recent dip.
To investigate whether this is the end of the Bitcoin market surge, more institutions and retailers have turned to the GBTC price premium. The GBTC price premium has been negative since the last price correction, and has not been positive since then. On the basis of these metrics and the recent market movement, we are away from the height of the price rally. These metrics say that the high might not be the same as the S2F or S2Fx model in the current business cycle, but that the price correction is above the $59000 range. Metrics such as exchange inflow and active supply indicated revival and price exploration above $59,000, up to $67,000.