The ‘fifth buy signal in BTC history,’ according to a key Bitcoin price indicator.

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The Puell Multiple has now flashed a buy signal for the sixth time in Bitcoin’s history, but its developer warns that a falling hashrate and China’s miner purge are crucial issues to consider.

On June 28, the cryptocurrency market experienced cautious optimism as the price of Bitcoin (BTC) momentarily surpassed $35,500, reviving expectations that the bull trend will continue soon.

Despite the positive rise, some experts have warned that the failure to post a daily close over the $35,000 barrier level indicates that traders are merely closing positions at each breakthrough to resistance, implying that additional fall is possible.

The Puell Multiple, created by on-chain analyst David Puell, has recently delivered its sixth Bitcoin buy recommendation in history.

The Puell Multiple focuses on the supply side of the Bitcoin economy, namely Bitcoin miners and their earnings, and investigates market cycles through the lens of mining revenue.

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It is derived by dividing BTC’s daily issuance value (in USD) by the 365-day moving average of BTC issuance value.

 

The Puell Multiple equation and historical performance. Source: LookIntoBitcoin.com

The indicator, as shown on the chart above, tracks times when the daily value of the Bitcoin issued reaches historic lows, represented by the green box, or historically high values, indicated by the indicator climbing into the red box.

In the past, the Puell Multiple signalling strong purchasing opportunities in mid-2018, when the price of BTC fell below $4,000 in the depths of the crypto winter, and again in March 2020, when prices fell because to the Covid-19 epidemic.

It also sent traders a sell signal in late 2017 when the price of BTC peaked at the cycle’s high point, as well as during the 2013 Bitcoin bull market.

The purging of miners results in a historically low level of mining difficulty.

The recent problems for Bitcoin have been worsened by China’s ban on mining, which has caused many major mining farms to close and migrate to other nations. Analysts now predict the greatest decline in mining difficulty in history as hashrate falls from historic highs.

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Bitcoin mining difficulty. Source: Glassnode

While miners are generally viewed as mandatory sellers due to the fixed costs involved in operating a mining operation, recent selling behaviour has resulted in a 50% drop in price, which means twice as much BTC must be sold to cover the same costs in fiat, as well as increased expenses incurred by miners shifting their operations out of China.

Cautious traders may be focused on the fact that substantial drops in hashrate in the past have been followed by price pullbacks, leading in a reluctance to invest capital in the present market conditions.

 

Mean Bitcoin hash rate vs. price. Source: Glassnode

While the price of Bitcoin increased on June 28, Puell cautioned that numerous variables should be examined and that no indication should be used in isolation to make trading choices.

Puell said:

“Hash rate follows price AND other exogenous factors, as we have clearly seen with the China situation.”

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