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There are no signs of a sell-off as miners stockpile their profits and institutions continue to pour money into the new Bitcoin exposure offerings to reach the market.
Bitcoin (BTC) is looking unstable at the start of a new week, with $60,000 already out of control — could this improve in the coming days?
Bitcoin is sticking to the mid-$50,000 level after an ordinary weekend that struggled to produce the breakthrough that many had hoped for.
Cointelegraph examines five variables that can influence future price results.
Coinbase IPO a beacon in flat macro sea
On Monday, April 5, stock markets were unimpressive, with many Asian markets closed for public holidays and no change in US futures.
Following the Suez Canal fiasco, oil was the only product with visible capacity, as OPEC+ countries agreed to boost production, placing downward pressure on prices.
With no leverage available, Bitcoin had no chance of sustaining another macro-influenced price run, and $60,000 resistance remained in place at the time of publishing.
However, one big event that crypto analysts are looking forwards to is Coinbase’s IPO on April 14.
The event is a milestone for the industry but could be accompanied by selling on launch day — a practice seen with other IPOs both old and new.
Elsewhere, U.S. bond yield rises remained a worry this week with their upward trajectory coinciding with a lack of progress for safe havens more widely.
“The repricing of inflation risk and U.S. rates, which will impact discount rates of future earnings and the way stocks are being valued is a source of uncertainty,” Johanna Chua, chief economist for Citigroup Global Markets, told Bloomberg.
“The other uncertainty is the pace of the vaccinations and the virus.”
Analyst: Bitcoin is at the “$3-5K stage” of 2021 bull run
Bitcoin may be failing to find new supporters, but hodlers must zoom out to see the whole picture.
That was the consensus among analysts on Monday, as BTC/USD fell towards $56,000.
Since testing $60,000 once more late on Friday, bearish movements took over over the weekend, resulting in a drop to $56,500.
Following that, the bounce was muted, with $57,000 serving as a transient focal point at the time of publication.
“The help resistance battle is intense,” on-chain data service Whalemap added on Sunday about current actions.
“Levels from last week are working pretty well. Bitcoin is being capped by the $60,045 level pretty spot on. Is this the calm before the storm?”
For popular Twitter analyst William Clemente, however, there was little reason to be bearish on longer timeframes, which have the support of a tranche of positive on-chain data.
“This Bitcoin Bull Run is still far from overheated on multiple on-chain indicators,” he summarized.
“In comparison to 2017, it appears we’re around the $3k-5k range.”
Clemente posted a chart comparing Bitcoin’s price peaks in 2013 and 2017 using the Puell Multiple, a classic measure that continues to indicate that there is space for growth before a profit-taking sell-off can begin.
Such an early stage of the bull cycle means that the bulk of Bitcoin’s upward price performance has yet to come, lending credence to some of the higher year-end projections — $288,000 and higher.
No one’s selling
On the subject of miner auction, this is a habit that has yet to reappearance this month.
Despite Bitcoin staying near all-time highs and a record network hash rate and mining difficulty, data reveal that there is little desire to benefit from mined coins just yet.
The miner nett location update, as compiled by on-chain tracking resource Glassnode, has indicated miners retaining their newly acquired coins over the past week.
In comparison, 2021 has been characterised by widespread sell-offs, especially in January, when Bitcoin reached $40,000 for the first time. Facing continuing – although slower – price hikes, sales have stalled since.
“Still not selling, still accumulating, clear trend,” quant analyst Lex Moskovski commented on the Glassnode numbers.
In tandem with miners come exchanges, which continue to see their BTC balances decrease. Traders, then, are no more interested in selling at near $60,000 than anyone else.
Purpose ETF nears 17,000 BTC holdings
Institutions have been especially bullish this month, according to the latest results, and they are putting their money where their mouth is.
With open participation in Bitcoin futures markets near all-time highs, institutional-grade goods are in high demand — but only if the price is correct.
As a result, the Aim Bitcoin ETF, Canada’s first licenced Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), proceeds to incorporate BTC in tandem with its funds under control (AUM).
Purpose had 16,462 BTC and $22.1 billion CAD ($17.56 billion USD) in AUM as of April 5, despite the fact that the ETF had only been in operation for two months.
The United States is likely to emulate Canada in enabling an ETF to reach the market, with such a commodity anticipated to receive multiples of what Purpose has obtained from organisations in its home jurisdiction.
All of this, though, will come at the detriment of Grayscale and its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, a stalwart institutional player (GBTC).
In a fee fight, GBTC could be losing confidence in the more cost-effective Reason, which is one of many Bitcoin products undercutting the business on management costs to customers.
Time to channel “situational awareness”
The famous stock-to-flow market forecasting model remains on target for $288,000 and higher, demonstrating that the mantra of “the longer the view, the better” remains best for Bitcoiners.
According to the model’s founder, quant analyst PlanB, the model’s “bull/bear recognition signal” is casually repeating its gestures from 2013 and 2017.
An accompanying chart shows the BTC/USD spot price matching its expected trend, with no indication that short-term rumination below $60,000 was invalidating the formula.
The incarnation of stock-to-flow used was stock-to-flow cross-asset (S2FX), an updated version which places Bitcoin within the context of other macro assets and tracks its transformation into a new standard.
“My favorite chart for Situational Awareness,” PlanB wrote in comments.
“S2FX for rough long term level forecast (white line), combined with accurate on-chain bull/bear recognition signal (color overlay).”
According to S2FX, the price will be $288,000 by the end of 2021, forming an average price in the existing halving period, which will end in April 2024. According to PlanB, the price peak until then could be twice the norm, or $576,000.