The supply dynamics suggest that Bitcoin might make a push for $100,000 if…

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After an 18 percent drop last week, Bitcoin’s upward trajectory has been met with a lot of consolidation. However, as Bitcoin investors appeared hesitant to sell at a critical time amid expectations of a price increase, on-chain measurements provided an interesting glimpse into current market mood.

Some intriguing divergences in BTC’s supply dynamics raised a complicated question: Are they predicting bullish or bearish divergences? As a result, in order to grasp the cryptocurrency’s price trajectory, it is necessary to weigh bullish/bearish signs against market attitudes.

Post-halving blast still in the pipeline

Bitcoin to $100k is every holder’s dream and it would be apt to say that this dream might come true. The only question then is this – When? According to a Bloomberg report, there is a simple, yet logical way for Bitcoin to get to $100,000. After last year’s supply cut, the chances of BTC rallying are higher since post-halving years have seen the greatest price appreciation.

A 4x price increase might take BTC above $100k in the fourth quarter of 2021. Given its 55x gains in 2013 and 15x appreciation in 2017, this should not be a difficult task for the king currency. The only question is whether supply and demand conditions have worsened since the beginning of 2021, as compared to Bitcoin’s prior post-halving years.

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Supply dynamics present a confusing picture 

The continuation of extremely robust underlying demand could be pretty constructive for the price. Shedding light on the same, analyst Will Clemente recently pointed out that almost 93% of Bitcoin’s supply hasn’t moved in over a month.

This is an all-time high, one underlining the bullishness of BTC’s supply dynamics of late.

While this is a decent short-term bullish strategy, looking at HODL waves against the price appears to illustrate how the price has fallen with the commencement of a bear market after this trend reached an ATH. So, how does this bode well for BTC? And what’s different this time?

Notably, the volume of Bitcoin less than a month old just reached an all-time low of less than 7% of the circulating supply. This meant that the number of coins older than one month had reached an all-time high.

Historically, anytime BTC experienced a local low in nascent coins, three out of four occasions were preceded by full bull markets. On the contrary, one was the pre-bear run complacency rally of 2014.

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The accompanying graphic depicts supplies divided down into age groups. According to the same source, the total amount of coins younger than one month is less than 7% of the 18.8 million BTC. Overall, these indicators appeared to be bullish in a Bitcoin market that was maturing.

Furthermore, a consistent increase in addresses with non-zero balances, despite a drop in price, is a positive indicator for the king coin. It appears like BTC is prepared for some severe moves — either BTC will pump like never before, or this is another one in four example.

 

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