The first surge of the alt season has struck exchange portfolios, with double-digit returns from alts such as XRP, XTZ, BSV, XLM, NEO, and VET, among others, in the top-30 cryptocurrencies by market capitalisation. Among altcoins whose values are heavily affected by Hodler distribution and structure, XRP has the maximum market capitalisation and has also provided the highest returns this week (+77.32 percent).
Surging altcoins, in general, have begun to see a decrease in trading rate across exchanges, with the likes of OMG, STX, UNI, BAT, ALGO, and ALPHA registering a rise. Furthermore, lesser-known alts like STX have seen an increase in social volumes, as have other cryptos like $XRP, $XTZ, $FTM, and $BTG.
According to the attached table, social volume is a crucial metric driving the recent price increase. This alt season’s other main metric is HODLing, HODLers, and HODLer composition. Identifying the changing HODLer makeup has been critical in predicting an impending price spike for alts such as OMG, STX, UNI, BAT, ALGO, and ALPHA.
The average time that HODLers hold alts in their portfolios is the most important metric, followed by concentration by big HODLers and HODLers productive at the current price. This season, these on-chain metrics have proven useful in forecasting market rallies.
At the time of publication, APLHA had a concentration of 96 percent among big HODLers. However, only 53% of them were profitable at the specified price. This seemed to imply that, with over a 100 percent increase in trading volume on top ALPHA stocks, there could be a surge into the $2.5 range, which was last seen in February 2021.
In the case of STX, the rally has been led by social volume. STX was shifting hands quickly at press time, with a 968 percent surge in 24-hour trading rate. The price had risen by more than 20% in the previous 24 hours and was set to resume its upward trend this week.
The goal for OMG was $10, but the decrease in trade volume (-33 percent) and price in the last 24 hours indicated that there could be further price reversal. In reality, OMG’s rally could have come to an end. According to IntoTheBlock, on-chain sentiment was bearish. Furthermore, fewer than 30% of HODLers are profitable at the stated price range, indicating the end of the rally.
Although the rally for OMG could be coming to an end, it is expected that it will be continued in the case of UNI. According to UNI’s price chart and on-chain review, the price can rally to its ATH this week before dipping and ending the rally. This was apparent from the rise in 24-hour trading volume and price (nearly 3 percent ).
At the press time price level ($1.23), 98 percent of the 77 percent concentration by big HODLers is profitable.
Other top-100 altcoins with low market capitalizations that could be primed to rebound soon based on the same metrics are WINk and ALPHA. Retail traders looking to make double-digit returns this week should consider adding these top-100 tokens to their portfolios. This week will see an increase in the price of both mid- and low-capitalization alts.
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