The probability of bitcoin hitting $100,000 is as real as it has ever been, with the cryptocurrency reaching $50,000 on exchanges over 24 hours ago. Currently, Plan B and its top two models – S2F and S2Fx – had estimated that Bitcoin would reach $100,000 by April 2021. However, based on data from Unfolded, the likelihood of a Bitcoin price reaching $100,000 is now 14 percent.
In reality, on-chain analysts are sceptical in the short term, seeing as we’re in a period of intense greed in Bitcoin, with the same likely to bring sales pressure on the asset.
However, others would not be in agreement with such an assessment. In fact, according to Steven Ehrlich, Director of Research at Forbes, every time Bitcoin passes a psychological barrier, it makes the next one much easier to clear up. In a recent tweet, he said,
“There is still work to go, but $100,000+ seems a lot more feasible than it did 6 months ago.”
In addition, crypto experts and technical analysts could not agree more as the 30-day correlation between the historical market shares of PayPal, MicroStrategy, Bakkt, and Square all point to more bullish developments.
The connection in the stocks of the institutions that recently bought Bitcoin off their balance sheets is at its peak. What’s even better here is that their stocks are doing better than expected. MicroStrategy’s stock of MSTR, for example, grew by 66.4 per cent in the last month alone, at press time. With shareholder value growing after the firm’s investment in Bitcoin, the situation for BTC is currently buoyant as more institutions are drawn into cryptocurrencies.
Furthermore, on-chain data from IntoTheBlock seemed to indicate that widespread institutional interest may have already arisen. The average transaction size reported on the Bitcoin blockchain was $4,40,000. The average transaction size is up to 16 times over a period of 12 months.
Finally, apart from widespread institutional interest and the correlation in the stock of top firms, the annualised premiums for March Futures on retail investors’ platforms are another buoyant indicator. In fact, the premiums increased further this week, with the average standing at 44 per cent.
At press time, the annualised funding rate was well above 1000 percent. After two weeks of wild price swings, the levels seemed to be back higher than the average. These key metrics all point to $100,000, and the price level seems closer than ever, despite BTC’s passing $50,000 only briefly. The price rally may continue to march towards $100,000 in the coming weeks and months of 2021.
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