Why Bitcoin will not drop next month

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With Bitcoin’s price crossing its previous ATH to climb past $50,000 on the price charts a few hours ago, it can be concluded that the price rally is now officially the longest in Bitcoin’s history.

Source: Coinstats

However, with the third month of the year ahead, a few facts need to be explained. Based on Bitcoin’s monthly returns data from Unfolded, March appears to be a negative month for Bitcoin’s price. The explanation for that? Ok, most likely because it is tax-related.

Why Bitcoin's price won't dip in March 2021

Source: Unfolded

However, the new seasonal trend seems to be refusing to take a dive in March 2021. In fact, there is strong institutional support from the likes of MicroStrategy, with the same in the news today after proposing a private offering of $600 million in convertible senior notes “to use the nett proceeds from the sale of the notes to acquire additional bitcoin.”

What does this mean? Well, the growth is a big deal, one that solidifies how serious MicroStrategy is, as the firm has just $60.76 million in cash on its quarterly balance sheet from December 2020.

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MicroStrategy had $650 million in bitcoin before three weeks ago. Later, it added another $10 million to the purchase and, with the latest change, MicroStrategy plans to purchase an additional $690 million worth of Bitcoin after raising the proceeds from the selling of the convertible senior notes.

This brings us to the point that Tesla’s $1.5 billion investment in Bitcoin is a mere gesture, particularly because the company has $26.7 billion in current assets. That said, with banking institutions and payment processing institutions buying Bitcoin, there is support from key players including Mastercard, Visa, JP Morgan, Blackrock, TSLA, GrayScale, and MicroStrategy.

The correlation of assets with stocks and gold is decreasing rapidly due to price rises, and this could continue throughout the current market cycle as the accumulation of whales and institutions increases demand.

At the time of publishing, the relationship with Gold was 0.019 and with S&P was 0.21, based on Coinmetrics charts. This connection is expected to continue to decline and may turn negative as Bitcoin’s price shifted and crossed $50,000. Price discovery above the $50,000 mark is anticipated as institutions continue to line up, although exchange reserves are also decreasing.

Why Bitcoin's price won't dip in March 2021

Source: Coinmetrics

The main point here is that deposits on exchanges fall considerably in 2021, as opposed to previous years when exchanges were flooded with Bitcoin for sale in March for tax reasons. Ergo, 2021 may be the year Bitcoin defeats the March dip and continues its price discovery above $50,000.

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