Why retail Bitcoin traders should foresee a price increase

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Big Bitcoin wallet inflows indicate a bullish pattern turnaround in the coming week. The price is currently about $60000; but, with rising trading volume across spot markets, a rise of approximately 15% in less than 24 hours, a bullish trend in the asset’s price could be forming.

According to the chart above, Bitcoin is in market exploration mode above $60045. The $57000 mark has good support and is also a psychologically significant level for Bitcoin. The new bullish market trend is being bolstered by demand across exchanges. Buying bitcoin and selling June futures reportedly provides a 30 percent annualised “risk-free” return in USD. A three-month US Treasury bill yields 0.02 percent, which is 1500 times lower.

Bitcoin’s price surge of 30% at the end of March marked the sixth straight month of double-digit positive returns for traders. Historically, the second quarter has become a high-yielding quarter for Bitcoin. According to the price map, Bitcoin returns more than 250 percent in the second quarter. The current price is following this pattern, and the rebound from the decline below $60000, which was due in part to HODLers and in part to strong wallet inflows, indicates a bullish trend. When the price approaches the ATH, support prices rise. This is just another indication of Bitcoin’s bullish market behaviour.

Why this metric signals the upcoming Bitcoin price trend reversal

Bitcoin’s perpetual swap funding rates || Source: Skew

According to the aforementioned table, the increase in perpetual swap funding has also corresponded with previous ATH. The latest surge in perpetual swap financing can be seen as a predictor of the next ATH and a continuation of the bullish market pattern. Traders should anticipate market discovery to extend into the new ATH if momentum and uncertainty continue to rise over the course of the week.

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Bitcoin miner income is another indicator of this trend. It has recently hit an all-time high of $6.1 million. The old ATH was set on April 1, 2021, which was less than ten days ago. It is getting less expensive for retail traders to hedge the chance of long Bitcoin. The cost of using options to hedge against a price decline is decreasing. Between CME Bitcoin Futures and the offshore market, a wide basis spread has opened up. This suggests that, in comparison to traders on other exchanges, CME traders do not see any upside in Bitcoin in the future. These traders are institutions; however, retail traders are more optimistic about Bitcoin.


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